COVID 19 Spread : Status Update India as of May 9th

There are over 4.1 million cases of COVID-19 in the world today with over 280,000 deaths. In India there has been 62808 ( cases till now with 2101 deaths. Here is a summary of the situation in India.

All India Level

Data Source:

There are over 22982 new cases in the week of 3rd May to 9th May with 34 states and Union territories impacted all across the country. The weekly growth rate also increased for the first time since the week of 4th April. There has been a 58% increase in the total number of cases in the week as against 52% in the previous week. During this week there has been a 59% increase in the total number of deaths from 1323 in the week ending on 2nd May to 2101 in the week ending on 9th May.

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Segment Level Analysis

IPD divides the country into different risk segments based on the total number of cases in the state and the weekly growth rate. Here is how the segments are defined.

The distribution of states across the segments are as under:

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States like West Bengal and Punjab moved into extremely severe risk segment while Andhra Pradesh moved out of the extremely severe segment. Haryana, Odhisa, Chandigarh, Tripura and Himachal Pradesh are the other states and UTs which moved into higher risk segments. Goa and 5 north east Indian states show no new cases this week. Kerala and Telangana showed less than 10% growth rate in new cases. It is commendable for both as Kerala was the top most state few weeks back and Telangana was also in the severe risk segments. The highest growth rate was of Tripura as it rose from 4 cases till last week to 135 cases at the end of this week. Segment wise trends are reflected by the following graphs.

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The extremely severe risk group show a 71% increase in the number of cases. All other risk groups have lower growth rate than the national growth rate apart from the very high segment which show a massive increase mainly because of Tripura. There has been no new cases in 8 of low risk group states and UTs. The extremely severe group has lion’s share in the new cases this week with over 82% of the new cases coming from this group followed by the very severe risk group. The share of new cases across segments falls as the risk of the segment falls.

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In terms of total number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted, it is seen that the percentage is significantly higher in the extremely severe risk group as compared to the others. This reflects the need to conduct more tests in the higher risk groups as more positive cases are coming from these groups.

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Moreover in terms of recovery rate, the extremely severe risk group has a lower recovery rate compared to the other risk groups. India overall has a better recovery rate than the world recovery rate of 84%.

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STATE Level Analysis

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Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi are the top three states and UTs in terms of the spread of COVID-19 cases. The three states together account for over 55% of all the cases in the country. Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan are the other two states in the top 5. 7 states and UTs show no new cases this week.

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Maharashtra, Delhi and Gujarat has the highest number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted while there are 16 states with less than 1% positive cases out of the total number of tests conducted in those states. There are 6 states which have higher percentage of positive cases per 100 states than the national average of 3.7%. More tests needs to be conducted in states with higher percentage of positive cases.

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Kerala, Haryana and Tamil Nadu has been the leading states in terms of recovery rate. West Bangal has the lowest recovery rate among all the states and UTs. It has shown a sharp decline from 74% last week to 69% this week. Maharashtra and Gujarat, which are the top two states in terms of the total number of cases, has low recovery rates and are the bottom three states in terms of recovery rate. One silver lining is these two states have shown some improvement in recovery rate as compared to last week.

CITY Level Analysis

Data Source:

Over 59% of all the cases in the country comes from 10 cities in the country. Another 9.2% comes from the next 10 cities. So only 20 cities put together contribute to 69% of all the cases in the country. Mumbai, the financial capital of the country alone accounts for over 20% of the total number of cases in the country. In the top 10 cities there are three cities from Maharashtra ( Mumbai, Pune and Thane), two cities from Rajasthan ( Jaipur and Jodhpur) and one city each from Gujarat ( Ahmedabad) Madhya Pradesh (Indore), West Bengal (Kolkata) and Tamil Nadu (Chennai) respectively. The national capital region of Delhi also falls in the top 10 cities. Surat which one among the top 10 cities last week moved out of the top 10. Kolkata from West Bengal is the new entrant in the top 10. Utmost focus in required in these cities to control the spread of the virus.

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