With the removal of Article 370, there has been a lot of debate on how Jammu & Kashmir has fared in different socio economic indicators vis a vis the All India average.
In terms of education, the state of Jammu and Kashmir has fared better than the national average numbers both in terms of literacy rate and also in terms of proportion of people above secondary and higher level of education.
In terms of unemployment rate, we focus into the 15-29 age group and 15 and above age group separately. In terms of both the measures, the male unemployment rate of J&K has been lower than the national average. But reverse is the case with female.
In terms of all the health indicaors Jammu and Kashmir has fared better than the national average. This is also reflected in terms of the overall health index computed by NITI Aayog. J&K ranks 7 out of the 21 major states in India and overall ranks 8th among all states and union territories of India.
In terms of per capita GDP numbers, J&K ranks 15th among the major states of India as per as the GDP numbers, 2016-17. The per capita income of J&K is higher than that of larger states like West Bengal , Uttar Pradesh and so on.
The Economic Survey has set the target of becoming a 5 trillion economy. A lot of debate has been on how this can be achieved . What are areas should be focused on in order to achieve this objective. IPD examines how outcome of different socio-economic indicators are associated with the GDP Per Capita. In the article titled “State wise Performance across Different Socio-Economic Parameters“, the state wise ranks where given and a composite index was created based on four dimensions, viz., Health, Education, Unemployment and GDP Per Capita. The same data is used to find out the association of health, employment and Unemployment performances with the GDP Per Capita.
GDP Per Capita and Health
The index published by NITI Aayog was used to measure the performance on health across states. The Health indicator has a 77 percent association with GDP Per Capita . This is the highest association among the other socio economic indicators.
The health budget is around 65000 crores in 2019-20. In terms of trend , there has been a steady increase in the absolute budget from 2015-16. For the last three financial year the actual estimates are higher than the budget estimates
The share of health budget in the total budgetary allocation declined from 2.4% in 2011-12 to 1.7% in 2015-16. Since then it has been rising. This year it is at 2.3% of the central budget. The story is different if one looks into the share of actual estimates on the total spending. The share has been rising since 2014-15. It was 2.5% in 2017-18. The same was at 2,3% in 2018-19 (revised estimates). This year the share of health budget in the total budgetary allocation is 2.3% of the central budget.
GDP and Education
For education, the male and female literacy rates and the percentage of male and female attainment of secondary or above level of education are considered as performance measures. It is observed that percentage of attainment of secondary or above level of education has a high association with the per capita GDP as compared to the literacy rates. This is true for both male and female.
The percentage of male attaining secondary or above education has a 76% association with the per capita GDP. The same is 73% of females. In terms of literacy the association was around 40% for males.
The education budget allocation is over 94,000 crores in 2019-20. This is 3.4% of the total central budget allocations. There has been an increase in the absolute allocation since 2017-18. In terms of actual estimates it is observed that there was a sharp decline in the percentage of actual spending out of the budgetary allocation amount from 2014-15 and this continued till 2016-17. 2017-18 show a more than 100% spending on education out of the budgetary allocation.
But the percentage of education allocation out of the total budget has seen a steady decline since 2014-15. There has been a slight increase in this year’s budget. The share of education hovered over 5% of the central budget till 2015-16. For the past three years this has hovered around 3.5%. The same is true with the percentage of actual estimates. The percentage of actual spending of education out of the total actual spending hovered over 4% till 2014-15.But there has been a steady decline on this since 2014-15. Now the same stood at 3.7% in 2017-18. Based on revised estimated for 2018-19, this declined further to 3.4%.
GDP and Unemployment
Unemployment rates is at a historical high as per the Annual PLFS report. In terms of association with per capita GDP it is observed that higher the unemployment rate lower is the GDP. The highest association is with urban unemployment for male. This is around -48%.
In the recent months various government bodies have released data on different socio-economic parameters. The Annual PLFS report 2017-18 which focuses on employment scenario have been published in the end of May, 2019. This report not only talks about the employment-unemployment scenario across the country, it also gives a view on education attainment across individuals. The NITI Aayog has published the Healthy State Progressive India report on health index. The per capita GDP across various states of the country is provided by CSO. With all of this data available let us look into how major Indian states have performed across various socio -economic parameters.
IPD has created a composite index across major 18 states of the country, which in total account for 502 seats in Loksabha out of a total of 543 seats, based on the above mentioned data sources. Four important dimensions were considered for creating the composite index. The four dimensions are education, health, per capita NSDP and unemployment. The index ranges from 0 to 100, 100 being the best.
Maharashtra tops the list followed by Kerala and Gujarat. While Maharashtra has been consistent across all the four dimensions of the index, Kerala has out performed the other states in terms of its performance in education and health outcomes. Gujarat on the other hand had the lowest urban unemployment rate. Two of the most populous states of India; Bihar and Uttar Pradesh hold the bottom two position in terms of the composite index.
What has been the drivers for each of the dimensions of the composite index? Let us look into this.
The Annual PLFS report gives the literacy rates for male and female separately across different states of the country. Also the percentage of male and female attaining different levels of education is reported. For the composite index, ranking of states based on literacy rate separately for male and female and the ranking of states based on percentage of people attaining secondary or above education separately for male and female is considered.
Kerala holds the top spot in three of the four measures of education with Maharashtra topping in terms of percentage of male attaining education above secondary level.
While Assam has one of the highest literacy rates for both male and female, it also has one of the lowest percentage of males attaining secondary education and above. The reverse is the case for Telangana.
NITI Aayog published the Healthy State Progressive India report which gives the health index across states and union territories. This measure is used for the above mentioned composite index.
Similar to education, Kerala holds the top position in terms of the Health Index. The erstwhile economically backward states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Odhisa hold the bottom three position.
Per Capita NSDP
The Central Statistical Organization reports the per capita NSDP for different states of India. For the composite index the per capita NSDP numbers as of 2016-17 has been used as the information for all the major 18 states were available.
Haryana has the highest per capita GDP among the states followed by Maharashtra and Kerala. It needs to be noted that Kerala hold top position in education and health also. Maharashtra is also among the top states in terms of education and fourth in terms of health. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have the lowest per capita NSDP among all the states.
The recently published Annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), 2017-18 reports the unemployment rate for all states and union territories. As the overall unemployment rate has significantly increased, same phenomenon is witnessed across all states and union territories. Certain states have unemployment rates below the national average , while certain other states have unemployment rates higher than the national average. For the composite index rural and urban unemployment rates for both male and female separately has been considered.
Gujarat has the lowest unemployment rate in urban India for both male and female. Kerala on the other hand has the highest unemployment rate for both rural and urban female. Hatyana, which has the highest per capita NSDP reports to have one of the highest unemployment rate in rural India.
The finance minister has tabled the budget in the Lok Sabha on 5th July, 2019. The allocation to different ministries and government projects has been announced.
Let us see how the trend has emerged in terms of budgetary allocation on education and health.
The education budget allocation is over 94,000 crores in 2019-20. This is 3.4% of the total central budget allocations. There has been an increase in the absolute allocation since 2017-18. But the percentage of education allocation out of the total budget has seen a steady decline since 2014-15. There has been a slight increase in this year’s budget. The share of education hovered over 5% of the central budget till 2015-16. For the past three years this has hovered around 3.5%.
The health budget is around 65000 crores in 2019-20. In terms of trend , there has been a steady increase in the absolute budget from 2015-16. The share of health budget in the total budgetary allocation declined from 2.4% in 2011-12 to 1.7% in 2015-16. Since then it has been rising. This year it is at 2.3% of the central budget.