COVID 19 Spread : Status Update India as of June 20th

There are over 8.96 million cases of COVID-19 in the world today with over 467666 deaths. In India there has been 411732 ( covid19india.org) cases till 20th June with 13277 deaths. Here is a summary of the situation in India.

ALL INDIA LEVEL ANALYSIS

There are over 90105 new cases in the week of 13th to 20th June with 35 states and Union territories impacted all across the country. The weekly growth rate marginally declined from last week. There has been a 28% increase in the total number of cases in the week. During this week there has been a 44.3% increase in the total number of deaths from 9199 in the week ending on 13th June to 13277 in the week ending on 20th June. So in this week the growth rate of number of deaths was higher than that of the overall cases. This has lead to an increase in India’s death rate overall.

India has maintained a high recovery rate of 55% till June 20th. This is comparable to the world recovery rate. There has been a marginal increase in recovery rate also this week. In terms of death rate, while India has much lower death rate as compared to the world, but its death rate has seen an increase in the week ending June 20th.

STATE LEVEL ANALYSIS

Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Delhi are the top three states and UTs in terms of the spread of COVID-19 cases. The three states together account for over 58.5% of all the cases in the country. Maharashtra alone contributes to 31% of all the cases in the country. Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh are the other two states in the top 5.

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar are the top three states among recovery rate while Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Maharashtra are the bottom three states among all the states which have over 5000 cases of COVID 19. Eleven states have higher recovery rate than the national average.

Gujarat is the only state in India which has a death rate higher than the world average. Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are the top three states in terms of death rate. Assam, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh has the lowest death rate among all states with over 5000 cases of corona.

Let us deep dive on the top 3 states which account for over 58.5% of all cases in India.

The total number of new cases in Maharashtra has been over 23000 this week, the highest till date. There has been a decline in death rate till the week of May, 23rd, Since then the death rate has been rising week over week. It is important to note here that Maharashtra is among the bottom three states in terms of recovery rate among the states with more than 5000 cases and is among the top three among the death rate. For the state which accounts for over 31% of the total cases in the country, this is an alarming situation.

The total number of new cases in Tamil Nadu has been over 14000 this week, the highest till date. There has been marginal increase in death rate from the week of May, 23rd. It needs to be noted here that Tamil Nadu has one of the lowest death rates among the states with highest spread and its recovery rate is also decent.

Delhi has seen over 17000 cases this week. The death rate in Delhi has been rising steadily. From 1% in the week of 9th May, the death rate increased to 3.7% till this week. There has been a 45% growth in the number of cases in Delhi. For a small region like Delhi, this increase is huge and Delhi is the next hot spot for India along with Maharashtra.

CITY LEVEL ANALYSIS

Almost 58% of all the cases in the country comes from 10 cities in the country. Another 6.9% comes from the next 10 cities. So only 20 cities put together contribute to over 65% of all the cases in the country. Mumbai, the financial capital of the country alone accounts for over 15% of the total number of cases in the country. In the top 10 cities there are three cities from Maharashtra ( Mumbai, Pune and Thane) and one city each from Madhya Pradesh (Indore), West Bengal (Kolkata), Telangana (Hyderabad), Tamil Nadu (Chennai), Gujarat (Ahmadabad) and Haryana (Gurugram) respectively. The national capital region of Delhi also falls in the top 10 cities. Delhi is seeing a huge surge in number of cases and can cross Mumbai by next week. Both the financial capital and the political capital of the country are in a alarming situation.