COVID 19 Spread : Status Update India as of May 2nd

There are over 3.45 million cases of COVID-19 in the world today with over 200,000 deaths. In India there has been 39699 ( covid19india.org) cases till now with 1323 deaths. Here is a summary of the situation in India.

All India Level

Data Source:covid19india.org

There are over 13416 new cases in the week of 26th April to 2nd May with 34 states and Union territories impacted all across the country. While the number of new cases has increased from the number of new cases last week, the growth rate of the overall number of cases has shown a decline. There has been a 51% increase in the total number of cases in the week of 26th April to 2nd May as against 67% in the previous week. During this week there has been a 60% increase in the total number of deaths from 825 in the week ending on 25th April to 1323 in the week ending on 2nd May.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Segment Level Analysis

IPD divides the country into different risk segments based on the total number of cases in the state and the weekly growth rate. Here is how the segments are defined.

The distribution of states across the segments are as under:

Data Source: covid19india.org

States like Delhi and Tamil Nadu moved into extremely severe risk segment while Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh moved out of the extremely severe segment. Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Odhisa, Jharkhand, Chandigarh, Tripura and Assam are the other states and UTs which moved into higher risk segments. Goa and 6 north east Indian states show no new cases this week. Kerala and Telangana showed less than 10% growth rate in new cases. It is commendable for both as Kerala was the top most state few weeks back and Telangana was also in the severe risk segments. Segment wise trends are reflected by the following graphs.

Data Source: covid19india.org

The extremely severe risk group show a 59% increase in the number of cases. All other risk groups have lower growth rate than the national growth rate . The growth rate of the next three risk groups hover around 40% while the other three risk groups have growth less than 15%. There has been no new cases in the low risk group which has 9 states and UTs. The extremely severe group has lion’s share in the new cases this week with over 72% of the new cases coming from this group followed by the very severe risk group. The share of new cases across segments falls as the risk of the segment falls.

Data Source: covid19india.org

In terms of total number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted, it is seen that the percentage is significantly higher in the extremely severe risk group as compared to the others. This reflects the need to conduct more tests in the higher risk groups as more positive cases are coming from these groups.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Moreover in terms of recovery rate, the extremely severe risk group has a lower recovery rate compared to the other risk groups. India overall has a better recovery rate than the world recovery rate of 82%. It should be noted here that the recovery rate of extremely severe group even though is still lower than the national average, has shown an improvement from 80% last week to 86% this week.

Data Source: covid19india.org

State Level Analysis

Data Source: covid19india.org

Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi are the top three states and UTs in terms of the spread of COVID-19 cases. The three states together account for over 60% of all the cases in the country. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are the other two states in the top 5. 9 states and UTs show no new cases this week.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Delhi, Maharashtra and Gujarat has the highest number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted while there are 16 states with less than 1% positive cases out of the total number of tests conducted in those states. There are 6 states which have higher percentage of positive cases per 100 states than the national average of 3.5%. More tests needs to be conducted in states with higher percentage of positive cases.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Kerala, Haryana and Tamil Nadu has been the leading states in terms of recovery rate. West Bangal has the lowest recovery rate among all the states and UTs. It has shown a sharp decline from 85% last week to 74% this week. Maharashtra and Gujarat, which are the top two states in terms of the total number of cases, has low recovery rates and are the bottom three states in terms of recovery rate. One silver lining is these two states have shown some improvement in recovery rate as compared to last week.

City Level Analysis

Data Source: covid19india.org

Over 59% of all the cases in the country comes from 10 cities in the country. Mumbai, the financial capital of the country alone accounts for over 21% of the total number of cases in the country. In the top 10 cities there are three cities from Maharashtra ( Mumbai, Pune and Thane), two cities from Gujarat ( Ahmadabad and Surat) , two cities from Rajasthan ( Jaipur and Jodhpur) and one city each from Madhya Pradesh ( Indore), Rajasthan ( Jaipur), and Tamil Nadu ( Chennai). The national capital region of Delhi also falls in the top 10 cities. Hyderabad, which one among the top 10 cities last week has seen lower number of cases this week and moved out of the top 10. Jodhpur from Rajasthan is the new entrant in the top 10. Utmost focus in required in these cities to control the spread of the virus.

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