COVID 19 Spread : Status Update India

There are over 2.8 million cases of COVID-19 in the world today with over 200,000 deaths. In India there has been 26283 ( covid19india.org) cases till now with 825 deaths. Here is a summary of the situation in India.

All India Level

Data Source: covid19india.org

There are over 10561 new cases in the week of 19th to 25th April with 34 states and Union territories impacted all across the country. While the number of new cases has increased from the number of new cases last week, the growth rate of the overall number of cases has shown a decline. There has been a 67% increase in the total number of cases in the week of 19th -25th April.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Segment Level Analysis

IPD divides the country into different risk segments based on the total number of cases in the state and the weekly growth rate. Here is how the segments are defined.

The distribution of states has been as under:

Data Source: covid19india.org

States like Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh moved into extremely severe risk segment while Delhi and Madhya Pradesh moved out of the extremely severe segment. West Bengal, Bihar, Odhisa, Jharkhand and Andaman & Nicobar Islands are the other states and UTs which moved into higher risk segments. Goa and 6 north east Indian states show no new cases this week. Segment wise trends are reflected by the following graphs.

Data Source; covid19india.org

The extremely severe risk group show a 96% increase in the number of cases. All other risk groups have lower growth rate than the national growth rate apart from high risk group where even though the average number of cases per state is low, the growth rate has been high. The extremely severe group has lion’s share in the new cases this week with over 72% of the new cases coming from this group.

Data Source: covid19india.org

In terms of total number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted, it is seen that the percentage is higher in the extremely severe and very severe risk groups as compared to the others. This reflects the need to conduct more tests in the higher risk groups as more positive cases are coming from these groups.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Moreover in terms of recovery rate, the extremely severe risk group has a lower recovery rate compared to the other risk groups. India overall has a better recovery rate than the world recovery rate of 80%.

Data Source: covid19india.org

State Level Analysis

Data Source: covid19india.org

Maharashtra, Gujarat and Delhi are the top three states and UTs in terms of the spread of COVID-19 cases.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Delhi, Maharashtra and Gujarat has the highest number of positive cases per 100 tests conducted while there are 11 states with less than 1% positive cases out of the total number of tests conducted in those states. More tests needs to be conducted in states with higher percentage of positive cases.

Data Source: covid19india.org

Kerala, Haryana and Tamil Nadu has been the leading states in terms of recovery rate. But states like Maharashtra and Gujarat, which are the top two states in terms of the total number of cases, has low recovery rate. It must be noted here that the number of deaths from West Bengal is considered as per the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India website ( https://www.mohfw.gov.in/) as of the update on 25th April, 17:00 IST. There has been a statement of West Bengal health department that the total death number in West Bengal is 57 with 39 cases being death due to co morbidity and 18 cases being death purely due to corona. But since the co morbidity cases are not reported in the Government of India website, IPD is considering the number as shown in the government of India website

City Level Analysis

Data Source: covid19india.org

Out of the total number of cases in India, over 56% cases come from 10 cities in the country. Mumbai, the financial capital of the country alone accounts for over 19% of the total number of cases in the country. In the top 10 cities there are three cities from Maharashtra ( Mumbai, Pune and Thane), two cities from Gujarat ( Ahmadabad and Surat) and one city each from Madhya Pradesh ( Indore), Rajasthan ( Jaipur), Telangana ( Hyderabad) and Tamil Nadu ( Chennai). The national capital region of Delhi also falls in the top 10 cities. Utmost focus in required in these cities to control the spread of the virus.

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