COVID 19 Spread : Status Report -India

The world has seen over 1.7 million cases of Covid 19 till now. This has impacted almost the entire world. Here is a status report on India.

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India has seen over 3671 new cases with 2 additional state impacted in the week of 5th to 11 th April. The rate of increase has declined from previous week but the absolute number of new cases is still rising every week. However the growth rate has been different across different states. We define 6 risk segments based on the total number of cases and the growth rate this week. Here is a grid to explain how the segments are defined. Each colour code represents one segment.

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Below is how the states have been distributed across different segments.

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Mumbai, the financial capital of the country and Delhi, the national capital of the country falls in the extremely severe group. This is alarming given the huge population density in these states.

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Here is a summary of the segments. While the growth rate of extremely severe and very severe group are close, the average number of positive cases per state show a huge difference between these two groups. Similarly while Very high group has a higher average number of cases per state than the severe group, the growth rate of the very high group is much less than that of the severe group. The high group in spite of a lower average number of cases per state, has a much higher growth rate and can be a potential area to worry in future. The two most risky group has higher growth rate than the all India growth rate. This indicates that the situation in the worse effected states is becoming more severe. In terms of share in the total number of new cases in the week of 5th to 11 th April, the two most risky groups have the lion’s share.

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A true picture on how the disease has spread across states can only be depicted based on the number of tests conducted in each states. The World Health Organisation has said multiple number of times that the only solution to this problem is to conduct more tests.

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In terms of total number of positive cases, Maharashtra , Delhi and Tamil Nadu are the top states. But some of these states are also conducting more tests. The all India number of positive cases per test conducted is around 4.5%. Tamil Nadu and Delhi has the highest number of positive cases per test and much higher than the national average. While Maharashtra has the highest number of total cases, it has also conducted more tests and hence the number of positive cases per test is 5.5% for Maharashtra and is closer to the the all India number. West Bengal on the other hand has much fewer number of cases but also has conducted lesser number of tests.

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