The by-election results of 13 assembly constituencies from 7 states across the country have been declared today. As per the original results before the by-elections, out of these 13, NDA had 4, India alliance had 5 and others had 4 seats.
Generally by-elections take place after the demise of the existing person who represents the constituency. But the election in these 13 constituencies was unique as most of it (10 out of 13) was necessitated as the sitting MLA shifted to another party and asked for re-election. In 6 among these 10, the sitting MLA shifted to BJP ( 3 in Himachal , 1 each in Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab) and 4 where the sitting MP moved to India alliance parties( 3 in West Bengal and 1 in Bihar). So if we consider the turncoats then the pre by election scenario changes. After considering turncoats both NDA and India hold 6 seats each while others (BSP) hold 1.
Now as per the results of the by-election declared on 13th July, we see that NDA( BJP) has 2 seats, India alliance has 10 seats ( Congress -4, TMC-4, DMK-1, AAP-1) and others ( independent) have 1 seat. So from the original ( pre turncoat) scenario India alliance has a gain of 5 seats and NDA has a loss of 2 seats. But if we consider the turncoats, NDA has a loss of 4 seats and the India alliance has a gain of 4 seats as per the results.
Let us go deeper and analyse the seats in two cohorts; 10 seats where elections were necessitated because of turncoats and 3 seats where the election happened because of the demise of the existing member.
In the second cohort of 3 seats, 2 seats were held by the party which won last time and only in one seat there was a switch. The seat in Uttarakhand went from BSP to Congress. So in 67 percent of seats where the election was necessitated due to the death of the existing member, it is the old party that held on to the seat.
In the first cohort of 10 seats, there are 5 seats where the turncoats have lost their existing seats ( 2 in Himachal, 1 each in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Bihar) and 4 seats where the turncoats have held onto their seats ( 2 in West Bengal, 1 in Himachal and 1 in Madhya Pradesh). There was one seat where the party which got the turncoat changed the candidate and won ( West Bengal: Bagdha). So overall the winning percentage of turncoats out of 9 seats they fought is only 44.5 percent and they lost 55.5 percent of seats.
Thus one story that emerges from thesr results is that the Indian electorate across states is rejecting the Ayaram gayaram politics of turncoats. The people who change parties are not being accepted by the voters.
Indian Political Debate 