Varied Issues across Economic and Social Class and State specific  factors dominate this Election

Like the last general election, IPD this time spoke with multiple people across different professions and socio economic strata to understand what are the major issues that have been in the top of their mind as they go onto vote.

In 2019 the survey was focused only on Mumbai. This time along with Mumbai, we have also covered Kolkata, Delhi and parts of Maharashtra.

Delhi

We met a set of white color corporate executives in Delhi (most of them migrated to Delhi for work reasons) just before the first phase of the election. For them the major issues were policy continuity, political stability and image of India in the outside world. When asked about the issues of unemployment and inflation ( major issues raised by the opposition), one of them, who is co-founder of a start up, just answers , ‘kuch bhi bol lo, aayga to Modi hi’.

Here was a cab driver who comes from Haryana but has been running cabs in Delhi regularly for 10 plus years. He comes from the Jat community of Haryana. For him the major issues in this election are the farmers distress and the arrests of ruling Chief Ministers. He seemed to also be very angry by the fact that Olympic gold medalist jats were not given the due respect.  He is also happy that the Ram mandir has been finally built. But he adds, “Ram ji se dua karte hai ki kisano ko insaf miley”.

We met a security guard of a commercial building in Delhi. She has been working there for the last 5 years. Before that she was working as a house help. She comes from Bihar and belongs to the Paswan community.  For her the most important issue this time is the mohilla clinics and she has been a beneficiary of that along with her family.

Kolkata

We met a few doctors from renowned private hospitals in Kolkata. For them the unanimous factor that came up is that they wanted to vote against the growing corruption in the state. They feel there has been a stagnation in the state in terms of any development work and there needs to be a change. ‘There is no job in the state and nothing has happened in the last 30 years’. We now need a double engine government for the betterment of the state” as one of puts out.

We then spoke with a few roadside shopkeepers and for them it is a story of struggle. They are badly hit by growing inflation and they also have to pay to local syndicates and hence earn very less. For them these will be the main factors for voting. “Ei dadagiri bondo hoya dorkar” said one of them.

Here is an auto rickshaw driver who is from the outskirts of Kolkata. He belongs to the Matua community. He has got his auto because of help from the local councilor from the ruling party in the state . He says he has been earning decently and wants the state government to continue. His wife also gets money from ‘lakhir bhandar’, the flagship project of the state government. He feels the central government is harassing the state government through central agencies. As he says, ‘oder doley toh koi keu case dey na, Didir sathe thaklei case debe ‘…

Then we met a middle aged cab driver from Bihar. He belongs to the Kushwah community which is part of the EBC ( extreme backward caste) group in Bihar. He has been staying in Kolkata for the last 30 years. For him both the state government and the centre government are doing nothing for the poor in the last 5 years. As he says, ‘garib mar rahe hai sir… 5kg ration aur 1000 rupiya se ek 5-6 logo ke Ghar ka kya hota hai’. His son has done his graduation but has not found a suitable job.  He somes it up…’kuch bhi bolo , garibo ki party sirf CPM hi hai’…

Mumbai and parts of Maharashtra

The IPD team interacted with a few fishermen in Alibaug and most of them said for them the biggest issue is getting the right price for their fish. They identified themselves as Sena supporters. On further enquiry on which Sena they support given the party has split, they identified themselves with Anant Geete who is presently with Shiv Sena (UBT)

In the Kamshet area near Pune there was the same sense of confusion which the IPD team found out from people who identified as voters of NCP. This time in the constituency there is no faction of NCP fighting and it is a fight between both the factions of Shiv Sena.  Now the NCP supporters are confused about who to support.

Moving to Mumbai, here is a very senior executive of a corporate who identifies himself as a RSS sympathiser. He seems to be unhappy with the way some of the people with cases against them were being absorbed within the party and he feels this will not go well with people.However he beleives that third term of NDA is a given conclusion.

Here is a middle aged person from the Marathi community who stays in Thane and belongs to a middle class family. He and his entire family have been a traditional supporter of Shiv Sena. He strongly feels by allying with Congress and NCP, Shiv Sena UBT cheated with the supporters of Shivsena who fought these parties from ages. His support is with the Shiv Sena( Shinde) faction.

There is a youth from the Ambedkarite movement in Mumbai and his family have been strongly associated with the movement. He feels the present central government only does for the upper socio economic strata of the society and for him he has seen a lot of challenges faced on ground in terms of getting jobs. He believes there is a need for change.

Here is a  car driver from the minority community who openly says he has been supporting the central government and the BJP-Sena combination here in Maharashtra mainly because of the work done by the local MLA and MP in the area. But this time, the way the campaign has turned out he feels he will not vote for the BJP this time and feels cheated.

Here is an auto driver from Mumbai who again identifies himself as a part of the Ambedkarite movement and feels this government has done nothing for the poor. He feels inflation and unemployment will be his key issue for voting.

Migrant population in Mumbai

Here is a cab driver from UP who identifies himself from the Thakur community. He seems to be a big supporter of the CM of Uttar Pradesh and would want to see him as PM some day. However he feels the Maharashtra government, even though it is of BJP is not able to provide the same service as provided in UP.  He says roads in  some parts of Mumbai are worse than the roads in  UP.

Then we met an auto driver from UP who is from the yadav community and he identifies himself as Ram Bhakt. For him BJP has done nothing for the Yuva in UP. There are paper leaks in every exam. He says, ‘sir, sab kuch bech denge sarkar toh reservation kaise denge? Private mein toh reservation nehi hota’. 

Then the IPD team met a cobbler who also comes from UP and is from Dalit community. For him the major issue is the fear of reservation and lack of jobs for his children. He wants change and says ‘das saal mein parivartan hona chahiye sir’.

Then there was a shopkeeper from the minority community from Gujarat and for him the most important reason is that every community should be able to continue their business and earn money in peace.

Then we spoke to a carpenter who is from the upper caste  from UP. He has been staying in Maharashtra for a long period time and is now a voter of this place. He feels his local MLA who belongs to a smaller party has done a great work during Covid and since he is indebted towards him he says that will determine his voting decision. However he is sure his family members will vote for the BJP given they are upper caste.

There was an auto driver from Jharkhand, with whom the conversation became interesting. He first questioned Dole politics and free ration schemes and said what people need is an environment where everybody can work and earn and live with dignity. Then he directly asked why the Jharkhand ex CM is not released while the Delhi CM is released. Before we say anything, he himself answered, it is because of the lower caste. ‘ Hum pichedo ko hak nehi milta sir’, he adds on. He then says his vote is for the rights of the lower castes.

Conclusion

All through this survey what we found is there is a clear economic divide in terms of issues and preferences. While higher the income strata more homogeneous is the group in terms of support towards the ruling party and the issues here also are more or less homogeneous with policy continuity, image of PM and stability  being the central themes. Also it needs to be noted this is by far homogeneous in terms of social class also.

As we move lower down the income strata issues become more localised. There is no central theme that came up across the three centres we surveyed. It was rather a bunch of local issues. It seemed to be a combination of few state elections rather than one central election. Here the issues are heterogeneous across each state and within states across different caste groups. The only central theme,  at all is that of unemployment but the extent of its impact also varied across states and socio economic groups.

So we are actually seeing two elections. One in the higher income strata( top 5-10 percent) with a central theme or wave clearly visible there in favour of NDA.

Then there is a more heterogeneous election with no central theme and wave visible, rather there are a host of local issues which are dominating the elections making it a set of assembly elections in the garb of one central election for the remaining 90 to 95 percent of the population of the country.