India is going through the period of general elections, the most talked about affair in Indian politics today. The two states that always had the key to the road to Delhi have been Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. At one point of time they accounted for 139 seats of the total of 543 seats in the parliament. With the creation of small states of Uttarakhand ( from Uttar Pradesh) and Jharkhand ( from Bihar), now UP and Bihar account for 120 seats out of the total of 543. Hence the importance of these states have been paramount.
Both these states have a lot in common. They have remained economically backward and are regarded as one of the most poor states of India both in terms of GDP per capita as well in terms of Human Development Index. A vast majority of these states actually migrate to comparatively developed parts of the country in search of employment. The caste dynamics plays a crucial role in both these states in determining the political preference. Social engineering in terms of caste therefore has been a key to success in these states.
In UP for example, Mayawati’s BSP relies mostly on the dalit vote, more specifically on the Jatav vote within the dalit community. BJP has formed a rainbow alliance of upper castes (Brahmin,Thakurs,Bhumihar), non Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits. Samajwadi Party has what in this article we are calling the old MY base, i.e. the Muslims and OBC-Yadav base. Then there are smaller parties with specific caste bases like Jats supporting RLD.
In Bihar BJP mainly relies on upper castes, Janta Dal-U focuses on EBC support mainly Kurmis. The LJP relies on the support of the dalit base. RJD here like the Samajwadi party in UP relies on the MY base, i.e., the Muslims and OBC- Yadav base. Here also there are smaller parties like Jiten Ram Majhis HAM which focuses on the Mahadalits.
Caste is definitely a very significant factor in these parts of the country and identity politics will continue to play its part like every election. Along with caste there are a few macro factors in these two states that are having a significant impact in this election.
Thomas Piketty, the French economist has mentioned that India has been facing a severe inequality in terms of wealth and income. The income and wealth distribution is skewed significantly towards the top 1 percent rich population. Multiple other data sources also suggest similar findings.
UP and Bihar are already two of the most poor states of the country, with these growing inequality they have become poorer with more skewed income distribution against them. In simple terms the income of people of these states have not risen relatively to the richer states like Gujarat or Maharashtra.
A primary reason for this is as mentioned earlier, a vast majority of people in these states rely on migration and are in the informal sector as the majority of them are semi skilled or unskilled.
Now first during demonitisation, the informal sector which relied mainly on cash flows suffered a jolt and many lost jobs leading to a loss of income. Just when they were recovering from the shock of demonitisation, Covid-19 stuck, leading to a loss of job for several migrants. Many of them had to walk miles to reach their homes. Both of these had a severe impact on the incomes of the vast majority of people in UP and Bihar pushing them into extreme distress.
The government of India came up with the free ration scheme for BPL families ( 80 crores across the nation). Now this ration scheme at least provided the means to minimum survival for these people. Now what this has led to is the emergence of the new M factor in UP-Bihar politics. This M factor is the Mahila factor. The women of the families have been moved towards the BJP particularly towards Prime minister Modi because of this ration scheme at the time of distress. This is across castes. While ration is a key for which the Mahila factor has significant support towards the present central government, there is also rising inflation, especially fuel and food. And many women are vastly impacted by it. This can have some impact and lead to some decline in the support for NDA from the Mahila base. The opposition, both in these two states, has highlighted the MEHENGAI issue as the primary issue in the election.
Ration is not the only factor for the emergence of the Mahila factor in these states. With the huge male migration these states mainly had women staying in the states and it is them who voted and hence became an important factor. They had a say on what are the local factors that are affecting them. Law and order had been a core issue for women. This Mahila factor became a big factor for elections in both these states in the recent few elections and IPD believes will play a crucial role in this election as well.
As per CMIE data, the unemployment rate in India as per 2023-24 is 8.03 percent. Moreover the employment rate has declined from over 42 percent in 2016-17 to around 36 percent in 2023-24 as per the same data ( source Indian Express). This growing problem of joblessness has been a key issue all over India and also in these two states. The Agneeveer scheme launched by the government for employment in the armed forces has been a temporary one and has been vastly opposed in these two states. Moreover there has been multiple vacancies in central government jobs for which youth of these two states eye for specially in railways. Those have not been fulfilled.
This has led to a significant anger among the youth across caste and gender in these two states and for them the core issue has been unemployment. So the new Y factor for this election that is emerging is the youth factor who are focusing on the issues impacting them across the caste and gender lines.
Here the opposition is focusing very significantly on rojgar. Especially in Bihar where Tejashwi Yadav has the credentials of giving government jobs in his tenure as deputy Chief Minister. This has found support among the youths across both the states. The NDA is focusing on the image of Prime Minister Modi here.
So while caste continues to play a significant role in UP and Bihar we are seeing the emergence of the Mahila(M) and the Youth(Y) factor is a key for these elections. While the Mahila factor has around 50 percent of the population, with the demographic transition, India’s average age is also 28 and the Youth factor is also significant with a sizeable population. It remains to be seen how this new MY Factor plays in this election.
Indian Political Debate 