The most talked about affair in the political circle in India now is the elections in the five states; the three states in the Hindi heartland ( Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh), one southern state ( Telangana) and one state in the North East ( Mizoram ).
Since 2003 it has become a trend in the media to regard these elections which happen just 5 to 6 months prior to the general elections as the semi final in the run up to the general elections. Even though the trends do not suggest the same.
In 2003 BJP had a victory in all the three states in the Hindi heartland in 2003. Congress also lost Mizoram to MNF. But in 2004 general elections, UPA 1 government was formed with left support and NDA suffered a defeat.
In 2008 also while in two of three Hindi heartland states BJP retained power, it in the general elections, we saw UPA 2 government was formed with a higher majority.
2013 was the only exception when the trend in the state elections matched with that in the general elections. Again in 2018 it reversed. In 2018, Congress got a majority in all the three Hindi heartland states but the trend in the same states in the general elections and the overall results in the general elections reversed with BJP sweeping these states in the general elections.
Hence regarding these elections as semifinals and considering these as referendum for general elections is not correct at least as per the past trends.
Let us look at these elections in a standalone basis. These elections can be regarded as elections of Welfare and Caste dynamics very much like the Karnataka election model. This is different from all the elections which have been been fought since 2014.
One way or the other, the ruling dispension was driving the narrative of every elections since 2014 with one or two exceptions. The opposition was acting more as a spectator in this game. Karnataka election changed the dynamics with Congress forming a rainbow alliance of backward caste (Ahinda) and forward caste like Vokilaga and Lingayats by bringing in strong leaders from the communities in one forum and also announcing the economic guarantee schemes cattering to all the under privileged sections of the society. This combination of caste focus and welfare model helped Congress gain a resounding majority in the state.
Congress is trying to replicate a similar model across the states in these elections and this is getting traction. We have seen the Bihar government announce caste survey and the results clearly indicate the need for increased caste reservation. In the beginning the BJP leadership had opposed the idea of caste survey. But gradually they have changed the stance. Now it is a much more softer stance with the leadership even asking for special categorisation for Madiga community in Telangana which is nothing but a caste reservation.
In terms of welfare schemes also, the BJP leadership had termed these earlier as Revdi culture and openly opposed these as doll politics. Now in these three states BJP themselves have come up with a host of welfare schemes. So the BJP here is following the trend of opposition here unlike all the elections since 2014.
Now why these welfare and caste factors are becoming determining indicators for these elections. Since the pandemic, it has been agreed by a host of economists that the Indian economy has been witnessing K shaped recovery leading to growth of the top x percent of the population while the rest has been seeing a decline in income leading to an increase in inequality in the economy. Thus the vast majority are falling under the grip of inequality and hench the need of welfare schemes for them.
Moreover the majority of the people falling under the grip of inequality are coming from backward castes as suggested by data from past trends ( NSS data). Thus caste dynamics play an important role in addressing this inequality. Hence the importance of welfare schemes and caste dynamics.
Let us now look into the trends and patterns for each state:
Rajasthan: Rajasthan is a state which changes government every five years. Will the same trend hold? One big factor that the Gehlot government has got in the state is the welfare model.schemes, be it the health insurance for all, money given to women, gas cylinder at Rs 500, all of this has created a positive impact among voters, especially among women. However there is strong anger at places against MLAs with regard to their lack of presence during Covid times and other activities. Congress was able to drive a good caste dynamics in 2018 by bringing Jats, Gujjars and Meenas in one place. This time around the equation is different. The tussle between Gehlot and Pilot in public has its own impact. Gujjars felt cheated with Congress as Pilot was not being made the CM or offered a respectful position. So there is a possibility of this font moving to the BJP. BJP in its campaign has highlighted the historical evidence of the Pilot family and hence Gujjars being badly treated by Congress. The other big issue is anger of the youth due to unemployment and the challenges with regard to the job related exams. So overall while Congress has got the welfare schemes correct for Rajasthan and might get the benefits of the same, the caste dynamics might go in favor of the BJP this time. So overall Rajasthan can be a very close fight.
Madhya Pradesh: This has been a stronghold for the BJP for the last 20 years now. In 2018 elections, Congress had won a very close election but after around 2 years with Scindia and his supporters going into BJP, again the BJP government came in power with Sivraj Singh Chauhan popularly known as Mamaji again becoming the CM. What is the situation this year? Here also the major factors are welfare and caste dynamics along with some amount of fatigue against the same government. There have been anti incumbent factors against the incumbent government specially with anger from farmers and tribals. Tribals and scheduled castes are a significant proportion of the Madhya Pradesh population. One more factor going against the BJP this time is the anger with respect to the Shindia loyalists and many of them switched sides. Congress on the other hand is showing a united face with Kamalnath and Digvijay working very closely. Madhya Pradesh has close to 50 percent OBC population and 35 percent tribal and SC population. Congress has a stronghold on the tribal and SC population especially with the criminal offences done against the tribals. Then there is this caste survey issue which the Congress is focusing on. However unlike Bihar and UP, there is no one dominant OBC group in MP. So it remains to be seen how this plays in the election. If the caste dynamics are not in BJP’s favor, what they have got is the ladli behna scheme through which they are giving money in the hands of women. Mamaji had enjoyed the good support of women earlier. This scheme has garnered huge support on ground and has got the BJP into the game. Moreover in order to address anti incumbency, BJP has not announced any name as CM, and there are other strong leaders projected apart from Mamaji. So overall this is a well poised election which can go either way. It is almost impossible to predict MP as it is a very large state geographically and every region behaves differently. But overall it can be said that while the Congress got the caste dynamics and local issues right, BJP is back in the game with the ladli behna scheme.
Chattishgarh: Since it’s inception, Chattishgarh has voted for BJP. Only in the last election we saw a change in trend with Congress coming to power. The things that can go in favor of Congress are the host of welfare schemes run by the Bhupesh Bagel government. In terms of caste dynamics both BJP and Congress focus on the sizable Gond community in this region. In the recent past one issue has emerged in terms of scam against Baghel. But overall BJP lacks local leadership apart from Raman Singh to be the face against Baghel. So overall it appears that Congress has an edge in terms of the welfare schemes with both the parties focusing equally on caste dynamics.
Telengana: This southern state is going to witness an interesting fight in this election. Both BRS and Congress has host of welfare schemes to offer to the voters. Inspite of the welfare schemes of BRS, it can be seen that Telengana has been declining in terms of ranking in welfare font in last five years in comparison to other states. Rajasthan and Chattisgarh on the other hand has seen improvement in ranking with the welfare schemes.run by their government. There have been more takers of the guarantee schemes of Congress like Karnataka. Moreover the politically dominant Reddy community seemed to be moving out of BRS with prominent Reddy leaders joining Congress. In terms of population distribution, it is the OBCs and the SCs with dominance from Madigas that enjoy the numerical supremacy. BJP even though it is regarded as the third force here, has done their focus in terms of caste dynamics and focused on Madigas. Congress with its caste survey issue is focussing on the OBCs. BRS is riding more on the charisma of KCR as a leader. So overall the outcome of this election is dependent on what proportion of Reddy and OBC vote move out of BRS to Congress and how much dent BJP makes on Madiga vote and in whose cost? Finally we might end up seeing a very arithmetic number game election with the main fight between BRS and Congress but BJP can be a key factor.
Mizoram: Here the fight is mainly threefold between MNF, ZPM as the local fronts and Congress. There has been a host of local issues. However it is of great interest on how the recent challenges in Manipur, neighbouring the state of Mizoram play a role here in this election.
Conclusion: Finally, is this the semi final of general elections. A lot has been debated on the Modi factor. Especially in the Hindi heartland states this is one of the key factors. However recent findings using post poll and exit poll data suggest that while in general elections Modi factor plays a 25 percent to 33 percent impact in voters decision, for a state election in across states it plays a 5 percent impact on an average, the only exception being UP where it has a 10.2 percent impact.
Thus whatever may be the impact of the state elections it may not be the reflection of the national election as the factors determining the national elections are different.
Indian Political Debate 